Royal Caribbean’s 2Q results reflected large operating losses stemming from widespread voyage cancellations (as expected). Today’s release included formal updates to cash burn statistics (largely unchanged excluding higher interest expense) and showed some softer cumulative pricing for 2021 (now flat including FCCs vs. up mid-single digit last quarter), but we think investors remain focused on the industry’s path / timeline to resuming sailing, particularly in North America.
Search Coverage List, Models & Reports
Search Results1-10 out of 30064
What’s New? 2Q Themes?… With 2Q earnings largely in the books, we note the following takeaways; 1) The decline in video subs slowed sequentially, but still off 7% Y/Y, 2) Cable advertising growth was in-line; 3) our local ad growth outlook is largely unchanged (ex. better @ SSP), and 4) the market is willing to apply a multiple to companies with a perceived credible streaming platform. Bottom Line: No thesis changing takeaways.
Q2 financials and subs were quite solid. Q2 rev, EBITDA, subscriber net adds and ARPU all beat meaningfully, with rev 3% ahead, EBITDA 19% ahead of us and 24% ahead of Consensus and net adds of -96k vs. our -296k and Consensus’ -267k. There was really was nothing to gripe about in terms of the core business results this quarter.
SAGE just reported Q220 results – here’s what you need to know:
= = SAGE-217 ph.3 MOUNTAIN 6-mo follow-up = =
SAGE reported additional data from ph.3 MOUNTAIN study. They indicated ~75% patients of 77 responders of 30 mg at day 15 maintain their responses. From their ph.2 publication, we’re inferring responders are defined as patients who showed ≥ 50% HAM-D reduction from baseline. If we also assume all responders participate in the follow up studies = ~35% of total subjects in 30 mg maintained their responses up to 182 days
Politicians Are Playing a Very Dangerous Game
The president’s executive orders will only provide support for four to six weeks. More importantly, these actions do nothing to support small businesses. Fiscal support is now falling off dramatically at the same time high frequency data is already rolling over. With the economy likely to continue to slow and the election quickly approaching, we still expect a $1.5-$2.0T ‘Phase 4’ package to pass in the near future.
WCC’s quarter will be interesting at a number of levels. Key supplier ETN’s positive 3Q outlook suggests scope for positive revisions – this has led us to raise our organic growth estimate 50bps and now call for 15.6% core declines – but we expect AXE synergy targets to hold station. We will also be looking for any insight on the recently implemented shareholder right’s plan.
Consensus still looks conservative. We remain positive relative to dental consensus for 2H20, as 2Q results and July commentary confirm that in spite of US volumes tracking below normal, there is a path to revenues above expectations. Excluding the benefit of PPE, XRAY, NVST, and HSIC all indicated July is trending ~flat to up LSD (Exhibit 8), while consensus forecasts 3Q revenue declines of -18% / -25% / -4% for XRAY / NVST / HSIC Dental. While the Street forecast for HSIC is higher, we estimate the company is seeing an ~230bps benefit from PPE, and we continue to see meaningful opportunities for HSIC to generate upside to estimates on vaccines/PPE/testing. Our estimates are ahead of the Street for 2H revenue for XRAY and HSIC by 1.5% and 2.0%, respectively, and our dental framework for NVST is within MSD of consensus.
Model Update – Following UNH’s 2Q20 earnings, we are revising our estimates to reflect 2Q results as well as the updated color provided by the co. reflecting the latest business trends amid the COVID-19 pandemic. UNH reported 2Q adj EPS of $7.12, meaningfully above WR / Cons $5.65 / $5.28 as MLR of 70.2% came in well below WR / Cons expectations of 77.8% / 78.2%. As expected, a negative impact of COVID-19 on OptumRx / OptumInsight was more than offset by the benefits realized in UHC / OptumHealth. Unsurprisingly, FY20 adj EPS guidance of $16.25-$16.55 was maintained despite the strong 2Q as UNH “expects these results will be offset in the quarters ahead by the assistance measures already taken, the resumption of deferred care and future COVID-19 cost and economic impacts” – more below.
Updating Model – Following CI’s 2Q20 earnings, we are revising our estimates to reflect 2Q results as well as the updated color provided by the co. reflecting the latest business trends amid the COVID-19 pandemic. CI reported 2Q adj. EPS of $5.81, well above WR /Cons of $5.29/$5.15, driven by strong results in all three core segments (Integrated Medical / Health Services / Int’l) and lower share count (4c) vs. our model. Integrated Medical MLR came in at 70.5% vs. WR/Cons of 75.7%. Health Services OI of $1.25B was above WR’s $1.18B which we est. includes solid ~2.5% core-ESRX growth for the qtr despite script slowdown vs. 1Q of +6-7% and ~3% implied in FY guide. Unsurprisingly, FY20 guidance of $18.00-$18.60 was unchanged and more importantly, 2021 EPS target of $20-21 was reiterated again despite uncertainty. We are raising our FY20/FY21 EPS to $18.60/$20.45 from $18.51/$20.34 and maintaining our PT of $245.
- 1 of 3007
- next →