This AM (5/24/17) AAP reported Q1 17 earnings. AAP’s -2.7% comp, missed Consensus of -1.2% and our -2.0%. Operating margins came in light at 7.1% versus Consensus of 9.2% and our 8.1% and adjusted EPS of $1.60 missed Consensus of $2.16 and our $1.86. Taxes helped by $0.06 while margins missed by -$0.50 and interest and other hurt by -$0.05. See our EPS waterfall in Exhibit 4. Shares were down -5%.
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Earlier this morning (5/23/17) AZO reported Q3 17 results. SSS of (-0.8%) missed Consensus of 2.1% but slightly beat our (-1.5%). EPS adjusted (for SBC accounting change) of $11.12 ($11.44 GAAP) missed Consensus of $11.99 but beat our $10.89. See our new earnings waterfall analysis in Exhibit 5 and let us if it’s helpful. Shares are down ~8-9%.
Is it just us, or is interpreting most company releases getting more difficult due to increases in other income, changes to taxes, and buy-backs? Our First Look earnings table now quantitatively bifurcates the $ contribution to EPS into six discrete buckets: Sales, GM%, SG&A rate, Interest & Other, Taxes, and Share count. In order Sales, SG&A, Gross margins, and Interest were largest shortfalls. See Exhibit 2.
Trends have slowed in auto parts retail and with each of the stocks selling off, we decided it was prudent to search for an explanation for the slow-down. We see several factors that could be weighing on comps. We don’t think that anything is broken, but do believe that some of these issues will weigh on comps at least through 2017.
KAR reported Q1 results Tuesday (5/9/17) after market hours. Total Revenue growth of 14.3% beat Consensus of 11.9% but missed our 18.9%. Adjusted EPS of $0.62 was above Consensus of $0.60 and our $0.61. Margins came in lighter than Consensus, but SBC adoption drove a beat to EPS. KAR reiterated its full year guidance including EPS of $2.15-$2.25 and EBITDA of $825-$850M. Shares fell -1.5% on Wednesday (5/10/17).
This morning (4/27/17) ABG reported Q1 ‘17 results. New and Used Unit comps were -0.2% and +6.0%, respectively. Revenue met our estimates but missed Consensus by 1.3%. New and Used SSS $GP/Unit were both down significantly at -8.6% and -7.4%; however F&I per unit was up +6%. Adj. EPS of $1.58 beat Cons. of $1.48 and our $1.40. Shares were +1%.
Yesterday (4/26/17) ORLY reported Q1 17 results. SSS of 0.8% missed Consensus of 3.1% and our 4.0%. EPS of $2.60 (ex-SBC change) missed Consensus of $2.88 and our $2.85. ORLY’s Q2 17 guidance of 3-5% is in-line with its usual guidance and it kept full-year guidance of 3-5%. Mid-point EPS of $3.15 met Consensus of $3.15 and our $3.17. Shares were down -3% as April still looks to be below the 3-5% guidance range.
Is it just us, or is interpreting most company releases getting more difficult due to increases in other income, changes to taxes, and buy-backs? Our First Look earnings table now quantitatively bifurcates the $ contribution to EPS into five discrete buckets: Sales, Op margins, Interest & Other, Taxes, and Share count. See Exhibit 1 – we are seeking feedback.
Yesterday AM (4/25/17), AN reported Q1 ‘17 results. Rev of $5.14B missed Consensus by 3.4% and our estimates by 2.8%. EPS of $0.97 beat Consensus of $0.91 and our $0.90 but we estimate y/y changes in other operating and other non-operating contributed as much as $0.13 to EPS. New & Used SSS Units both missed our estimates, although used SSS units were significantly above consensus. Used $GP/Unit came in light due to market weakness, recall clearance, and 1Price. Shares were down -0.5%.
With KMX the last to report its 10-K and Carvana (Not covered) filing a prospectus we have revisited some of our past work studying new entrants and comparing Dealer financial/operating metrics.
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