One of our top picks, ECA was the first out the gate for 2Q updates and we can see why they wanted the attention. The cost structure was once again lowered (-$.30/boe), 4Q17 core four production growth was boosted to 25-30% from >20% driven by continuous productivity gains across each basin, total production beat and more importantly, the closely watched oil/condensate volumes beat our estimates by 6% (~100mbpd vs. WR ~94mbpd). While we prioritize these over resource gains in this environment, ECA gave you that as well with new premium additions and improved type curves across the core four. We export more of the same through 2H17 as ECA’s innovative approach to oilfield development continues to shine through. We expect a positive reaction. Outperform.
Search Coverage List, Models & Reports
Search Results1-10 out of 186
This week's consensus storage estimate is a +35Bcf injection, compared to a +38Bcf injection in 2016 and versus the 5-year average of a +57Bcf injection. At the consensus estimate, this week’s storage would be ~148Bcf above the 5-year average, and given the low/high range of injections for the next three weeks (based on 10-year average injections), total storage should stand between ~76Bcf and ~322Bcf above the 5-year avg. by late July.
Wolfe Research's Senior Oil & Gas Analyst, Paul Sankey, and Josh Silverstein, senior E&P Analyst, hosted a joint Webcast on the pivot from a macro to micro focus.
Rocky Balboa Said It Best, as did Al Walker Last Month – Either way, investors want to see some change. Whether in the form of rig reductions or a consensus from producers that production may not grow as much as previously thought, we think any signs that crude oil growth expectations aren’t going up anymore will be construed as relatively positive for our producer group, at least in the near-term. We don’t expect to see outright cuts across the board, but baby steps and the right messaging from producers are on their way for 2Q (forgoing growth, delaying DUCs, discussing maintenance spending levels). That kind of supportive tone should be good for the equities after being beat down this year (XOP -23% YTD), and we think there could even be some positive performance around the corner if crude oil price stabilizes, but if the messaging on 2Q remains “growth at all costs even at $40-$45/bbl”, investors likely remain sellers. Top picks into the quarter CXO and CLR.
This week's consensus storage estimate is a +63Bcf injection, compared to a +61Bcf injection in 2016 and versus the 5-year average of a +72Bcf injection. At the consensus estimate, this week’s storage would be ~178Bcf above the 5-year average, and given the low/high range of injections for the next three weeks (based on 10-year average injections), total storage should stand between ~83Bcf and ~331Bcf above the 5-year avg. by late July.
This week's consensus storage estimate is a +58Bcf injection, compared to a +40Bcf injection in 2016 and versus the 5-year average of a +66Bcf injection. At the consensus estimate, this week’s storage would be ~173Bcf above the 5-year average, and given the low/high range of injections for the next three weeks (based on 10-year average injections), total storage should stand between ~105Bcf and ~317Bcf above the 5-year average by the end of July.
“It’s the other guys, not us.” So is the mantra of producers with financial strength and operations in core areas of the Permian, a good position to be in relative to the rest of the industry as investors continue to focus on who, if anyone, will pull back the reigns on activity & growth during 2Q earnings season. Last week we had the opportunity to catch up with three leading producers in the Permian basin – Concho Resources (CXO, OP), RSP Permian (RSPP, OP), and Cimarex Energy (XEC, PP) – where we discussed thoughts around spending and long-term outlooks, infrastructure bottlenecks, and upcoming catalysts. Although there are high expectations for this group given premium multiples (~2x turns above group average), we believe they remain well positioned to navigate through this commodity price environment better than peers while also holding the deepest resource potential. Key takeaways are below with individual company updates inside:
We're introducing a weekly note on natural gas storage and topics impacting natural gas producers. This week, we provide an update on price differentials, recent pipeline announcements, and we are downgrading RICE from Outperform to Peer Perform following its acquisition by EQT last week.
We are downgrading shares of RICE from OP to PP following last week's announcement that EQT has agreed to acquire RICE for ~$6.7Bn. Our RICE PT moves to $27/sh from $24/sh based on the implied value for RICE shares in the transaction.
- 1 of 19
- next →