Search Coverage List, Models & Reports
Search Results1-10 out of 13307
AAL is hosting its analyst day next week. We won’t write a big preview note or anything, but here’s something to think about that may be a theme they discuss. We haven’t spoken to AAL about this idea.
We spoke with a large international auto manufacturer about current business trends including the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Our contact expects weaker sales in September due to flooding in impacted areas of Texas and Florida. However, our contact expects a pick-up in sales later in 2017 and into 2018 as a full assessment of the damage is completed by insurance companies. In terms of logistics, rail embargoes have been lifted in Texas and CSX should be reopening all of its lanes in Florida very soon. In addition, the vast majority of auto dealerships in hurricane-impacted areas are now open. Relatively low gasoline prices are still supporting higher demand for SUVs and light trucks over compact passenger vehicles, and our contact estimates that gas prices would need to rise over $1 per gallon in order to see a shift back to smaller cars. Moving to service levels at CSX, this OEM is still experiencing some issues, primarily related to autorack railcar availability.
Oasis Petroleum (OAS) carved out a 27.3% LP interest in Oasis Midstream Partners (OMP) at $17 per share on September 20, 2017. Oasis Midstream will become a primary vehicle for the midstream operations, with the stated goal to generate stable and increasing cash flows and to support the growth of high quality assets in the Williston Basin. Total revenue for 2016 was approximately $121 million, up 15% from the year-ago period due to increased water and natural gas volumes.
The buy side was at the low-end of a 4-5% Unit comp based on 3rd party web scrapers (our apologies – we were mistaken in pegging a higher bar in our preview). A 5% unit comp holds the 2-YR with Q1 despite lapping the Tier 3 roll-off. Some analysts thought there could be a material hurricane impact (we see it as a 30-40bps headwind in FQ2).
U.S. airline stocks have caught a few sell side downgrades lately, which is understandable and warranted. But we believe the ratings cuts can indicate investor capitulation. Though it’s likely more bad news looms with 4Q guides it’s probably about time to start buying these stocks again. We tracked sell side airline ratings changes back to 2008 and found nine clear instances of ratings changes serving as indicators of both peaks and troughs for the stocks. This analysis worked last year and we think it’ll work again now.
Investors are even more cautious utilities with only 20% expecting outperformance and 49% underperformance over the next year. This compares to 26% outperform and 45% underperform in the July poll and bullish views early in the year. Expectations for higher rates and tax reform might be a reason but investor views don’t support this. A majority (57%) see rates staying flat and most see a delay in tax reform to 2018 vs 2017 but 22% now see nothing getting done vs 9% last poll. Within utilities, Power has caught up to Regulateds for the first time since we have done these polls with both showing 40% overweight and 60% underweight. Power was only 5% OW and Regulateds 76% just back in April. Utilities have underperformed the market YTD after a recent pullback – we think this may be setting up for a contrarian buy opportunity but would be patient.
SCG has been lambasted by the press in SC, as state lawmakers investigate what led SCG/Santee Cooper to abandon the Summer new nuclear project and how to protect ratepayers. The investigations continue; this week the US Attorney’s Office announced one. Despite the political mess, SCG hopes to work with lawmakers and intervenors, including consumer groups, to reach a settlement on how much of the $4.9B cost to date will be recovered. SCG recently said its goal is for no further rate increases related to the project even though the state’s Baseload Review Act allows for prudent spend to be rate based if abandoned. Shares have trailed the UTY by 3100bp YTD. But we find SCG situation still uninvestable given a wide variety of outcomes, which have negative skew. We cut our PT by $7 to $59.
In a recent note, we prepared 30 questions that we believe to be topical to ULTA’s growth trajectory. Based on our travels marketing with VP of IR Laurel Lefebvre in Paris, we provide comprehensive answers to our 30 questions that largely relate to future growth opportunities. We look at the different drivers of growth, market share opportunities, prestige brand rollouts, real estate, competition, and margin-driving opportunities. ULTA has significant growth ahead, and although sales growth may decelerate to the mid-teen range going forward (from 20%+), we expect to see leverage on investments driving 20% EPS growth. We are highly confident that ULTA can attain its 15% operating margin goal by the end of 2019.
- 1 of 1331
- next →