Yesterday (4/25/2017), it was reported by various news organizations that Albertsons had approached Whole Foods for a potential merger and that Whole Foods had retained Evercore. Neither company would confirm the news reports. Nevertheless, JANA Partners, which built a roughly 9% stake in Whole Foods and disclosed its holdings a few weeks ago, did reference in its filing a desire for Whole Foods to engage in strategic discussions with third parties.
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Wolfe Research Senior Utilities Analyst, Steve Fleishman, hosted a webinar examining the earnings season preview and latest sector views.
JBLU reported 1Q17 EPS of $0.25 vs. our $0.20 and consensus $0.22. We thought the call was really good. Near term JBLU gave a solid 2Q TRASM guide of +3-6% y/y (our estimate was +3-5%) and affirmed capacity and CASM ex-fuel guidance for this year. Longer term and bigger picture JBLU deferred 13 airplanes out of this decade and guided to a modestly lower average annual growth rate through 2020 vs. prior commentary, strongly hinted at a medium term exit from the E-190 fleet, and affirmed longer unit term cost targets laid out at the December analyst day (despite less ASMs).
LMT reported 1Q17 EPS ex-items of $3.00, modestly below our $3.07E but above consensus $2.79E. Excluded were a $0.25/sh charge related to higher costs to complete an int’l air missile defense contract with presumably UAE to integrate a C4I system (EADGE-T, a technologically challenging fixed price development program with future upside potential) and a $0.14/sh impairment charge on a UAE JV. LMT stock pulled back ~3% today, we believe, on a slight nip to 2017 EBIT and EPS guides (both down ~1% at the midpoint) despite better guidance on cash flow and sales this year. Nothing really changed with the investment outlook: it’s just that this is what happens to stocks that trade at all-time highs and rich valuations.
Excluding Faiveley restructuring costs, WAB reported adjusted 1Q EPS of $0.84 vs. Cons. of $0.82 and our estimate of $0.80. Sales missed our model by 10%, but op. margins were 130bp better than our expectation. A low tax rate was a $0.04 benefit to our model. So a beat, but lower quality. WAB reiterated full-year 2017 EPS guidance $3.95-$4.15 vs. prior Cons. of $4.00 and our low-end estimate of $3.80. WAB also reiterated its full-year sales guidance and Faiveley synergy targets. Conference call at 10:00am ET; wabtec.com.
After a few adjustments (LAM bad-debt recoveries, merger related costs and impairment & restructuring costs), clean 2Q EBITDA of $225mm, below both Consensus/WR of $255mm/$236mm. We are getting to a clean EPS loss of $0.14 vs Consensus/WR of -$0.04/-$0.30. Revenues were in-line but EBITDA/EBIT margins of 9.9%/0.3% were light vs. 11.3%/1.0% Consensus. NAM and LAM worse than expected. Europe/Africa/Russia Caspian was soft, too. MEA beat though. Most of the softer-than-expected 1Q issues were highlighted at a competitor’s conference last month, but numbers never really came down for some reason. See variance below.
With KMX the last to report its 10-K and Carvana (Not covered) filing a prospectus we have revisited some of our past work studying new entrants and comparing Dealer financial/operating metrics.
Tough market these days. Decent 2Q outlook could not propel the stock higher today. HAL actually underperformed by ~100bps (-0.8% vs +0.2% for OSX). We agree with HAL – there is a tale of two cycles playing out globally. The short-cycle NAM market is rapidly accelerating (maybe too quickly), while the offshore and international recovery remains elusive, though management affirmed they did see bottom in 1Q (mostly attributed to some seasonal improvement in Eastern Hemisphere). 52% of HAL’s 1Q revenues were generated in NAM. This we like, although there is a bit of NAM onshore de-risking amongst investors as concerns are growing around the sustainability of the NAM onshore recovery, something we have been highlighting for months now. Regardless, HAL is our favorite way to play NAM onshore, especially now that RES (recently downgraded to PP) is trading at a similar multiple. Nonsense. Maintain OP & $55 YE18 PT (10x ’19 EBITDA).
This afternoon, Express Scripts Holding Co. (ESRX, Not Rated) reported its first quarter 2017 earnings and announced that a large managed care client, Anthem (ANTM) will not be renewing its ten-year PBM contract with Express Scripts after the contract expires on December 31, 2019. ESRX disclosed that ANTM contributed $17.1 billion of revenue (as defined) and $2.2 billion of adjusted EBITDA over 219.6 million adjusted claims in 2017.
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