1Q18 adjusted EPS of $0.51 missed Cons EPS of $0.43 due to a sales beat offset by lower than expected margins. The top-line beat was due to the shift of a loyalty rewards promo into 1Q18. The company’s sales were $3.56B vs. Cons of $3.45B. Comp of 0.6% missed Cons of 1.1%. We note an unexpected slowdown in sales at the off-price Rack segment due to execution issues in women’s apparel category. The company grew e-commerce 18% YoY to 29%. The company reported Retail GM of 34.1%, which missed Cons by 10 bps, and consolidated Op Ex of 32.3%, which was 30 bps higher than Cons. The company reaffirmed their FY18 Sales/Comp guide of $15.2-$15.4B and 0.5%-1.5%, but increased the low range of their FY18 EPS by $0.05 to a range of $3.35 to $3.55 (Cons $3.43).
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Wolfe Research's Senior Macro Research Analyst, Chris Senyek, hosted a webcast to give an overview of his team's process in identifying special situation ideas, to discuss six new ideas, and to look at favorite special situation themes.
We spoke with a large shipper about recent TL pricing and capacity trends. Our contact’s tender acceptance rates in late March were around 80%, but they improved to around 85% in April and closer to 90% so far in May. So the market has loosened somewhat, which likely reflects a delayed produce and overall spring season, but our contact expects capacity to get tighter again over the next few weeks. Still, our contact expects his TL rates to increase 8%-12% this year, up from his prior expectation of 8%-10% at the beginning of the year. In order to get some rate relief, our contact is shifting freight to intermodal. He would like to shift even more freight to intermodal, but he thinks that every shipper is trying to shift there so there is limited capacity and rates continue to move higher.
CPB reported 3Q18 results this morning (5/18/2018) far below expectations, took a $619mm impairment charge on the Fresh segment, now expects Snyder’s-Lance to be modestly dilutive to FY19 EPS, and announced the retirement of its CEO, Denise Morrison. Organic sales excluding the contribution from Snyder’s-Lance of $1,850 were in-line with our forecast, but margin pressure remains unabated, and CPB decreased its FY18 guidance (pre-Snyder’s-Lance) for EBIT growth by 400 bps and EPS growth by 500 bps. The company also indicated FY19 will be a challenging year driven by gross margin pressures in the core Campbell’s business as well as operating challenges at the newly acquired Snyder’s-Lance, which is now expected to be modestly dilutive in FY19. As of 11:15am ET, CPB is down ~11%.
We recently published a 279 page note on investing in special situation ideas. Top ideas highlighted are Axalta, CNH Industrial, W.R. Grace, Trinity Industries, Convergys, and Liberty Latin America.
Williams had a pretty upbeat analyst meeting, making it clear that there is still a lot of growth to come beyond the known projects anchored by Atlantic Sunrise. There was another 1.7 Bcf/d of Transco opportunities identified, plus a Permian takeaway project, plus reasonable G&P growth potential. The stock continues to look attractive vs. the group on valuation especially given the better conviction on the growth backlog, and the WPZ rollup will simplify the structure and make WMB easier to own. We reiterate Outperform.
We read every proxy statement for each airline we cover. We highlight noteworthy things, some subtle and some obvious. We aggregate drivers of CEO pay in easy-to-read tables and include frank views about what feels about right and what feels out of touch factoring in recent company performance and investor perception. And just for fun, we show how pay drivers at each airline have evolved since 2007, too.
In an increasingly competitive field of active investing, investors are paying more and more attention to unstructured information such as text, images, audios, and videos. The advance in NLP (Natural Language Processing), distributed computing, and machine learning have greatly expanded our ability to analyze massive volume of unstructured textual data in real time. In this JQES issue, we provide a list of some of the most influential and relevant academic papers on NLP in accounting and finance research.
Amazon Prime members can download their order history which includes the shipping carrier that delivered each package. So with the help of our fellow Wolves, we analyzed tens of thousands of AMZN shipments over the past few years to see how AMZN’s deliveries with each carrier have evolved over time. While our sample size pales in comparison to the millions of packages that AMZN ships every day, we think it provides some interesting insight into the evolution of AMZN’s supply chain with UPS, FDX and the USPS.
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